Analysis of Latest Tungsten Market from Chinatungsten Online
Core Logic Behind the Current Tungsten Price Surge: The rise in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of tightening policies, supply constraints, and speculative capital involvement. According to China Tungsten Online, since late March, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate has risen by 5.71%, ammonium paratungstate (APT) by 4.83%, tungsten powder by 3.17%, and 70% ferrotungsten by 7.78%.
1. Supply Constraints
Declining Ore Grades: The non-renewable tungsten ore grades continue to decrease, increasing mining difficulty and costs, thus limiting supply.
Routine Environmental Restrictions: Low-carbon economy and safety production requirements impact tungsten smelting capacity and costs.
Limited New Exploration Results: In recent years, new geological discoveries of tungsten in China have been scarce, making it difficult to replenish existing reserves, intensifying long-term supply pressure.
Reduced Domestic Quotas: China’s tungsten mining quotas have decreased by 6.45% year-on-year, significantly tightening domestic supply expectations.
Producer Behavior: Producers’ reluctance to sell further tightens supply, pushing prices higher.
Global Supply Challenges: To counter China’s dominance and export restrictions, other regions (e.g., Canada, Australia, Vietnam, South Korea) are actively developing tungsten resources. While these projects offer hope for long-term supply stability, they are still in early stages and cannot alleviate global shortages in the short term. Additionally, high development costs for new projects may further drive market prices.
2. Demand Dynamics
Demand Divergence: Tungsten demand shows a trend of “l(fā)ow-end contraction, high-end surge.” Demand growth in traditional sectors is slowing, while high-end manufacturing (aerospace, electronics, defense) is a strong demand driver.
Strategic Reserves: Global strategic stockpiling of critical minerals intensifies competition for available resources. Geopolitical concerns over critical mineral security are driving investments in non-Chinese tungsten sources, indirectly supporting price increases.
Trade Dynamics: U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs restrict Chinese tungsten exports, forcing domestic companies to shift toward high-value-added products. The short-term “pain” of reduced overseas orders is becoming an opportunity for industrial upgrading.
3. Cost Pressures
The cost-driven logic behind tungsten product prices is strengthening. Declining ore grades, coupled with rising energy and labor costs, have significantly elevated the cost baseline for domestic tungsten production, reinforcing the price floor.
4. Policy and Market Sentiment
Export Controls: Stricter export policies heighten supply anxiety in international markets. Low inventories and fragile supply chains are fueling expectations of panic buying.
Speculative Capital: The involvement of speculative funds amplifies price volatility, reflecting short-term market hype over tungsten scarcity.
5. Market Outlook
Short-Term: Tungsten prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels. The cost support line (recent high-grade tungsten concentrate prices testing the 150,000 mark) forms a price floor, but weak exports and slow inventory digestion limit upward potential.
Long-Term: Breakthroughs in recycled tungsten technology could be the biggest game-changer. If technical bottlenecks are overcome, improved tungsten scrap recycling efficiency could substitute for primary ore demand, reshaping the global tungsten supply landscape. Meanwhile, domestic companies must remain vigilant of the potential impact of international capacity increases on pricing power.
Prices of Tungsten Products on April 24, 2025
Picture of Ammonium Metatungstate
